*Dominic Vincent Nkoyoyo
The July 11th bomb attacks in the Ugandan capital Kampala which left 80 people dead and many others injured, leaves no doubt that Al Shabaab which claimed responsibility, is a very dangerous and deadly criminal gang! It is a real threat to stability and peace in the whole of East Africa. So something has to be done right now to contain Al Shabaab.
These criminals are in the first place dangerous to the innocent Somali people who are scattered throughout East Africa. For seeing a Somali now, the natural reaction is to suspect that he or she might be a Kamikaze! And people in the transport sector might find it very difficult to carry people of Somali origin in their vehicles.
But in containing Al Shabaab we should avoid the natural temptation of taking war to the Somali people in retaliation. The Somali people are truly our brothers and sisters and they are fed up and tired of war. War has driven millions of them out of their country the majority of who are living in refugee camps in miserable and dehumanizing conditions. What they really want is peace and it is that which we should take them.
But it is also very obvious that if we do not send in enough troops Al Shabaab with the sophisticated weaponry and military training they are receiving, very soon they will over throw the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). This should not be allowed to happen. For the creation of this Transitional Federal Government was a result of very hard work and tough political negotiations and compromises involving clan members and the then war lords of Somalia. The (TFG) united what was then the Transitional National Government (TNG) and the Somalia Reconciliation Council (SRRC). Given the political history of Somalia this was a real success story. So should Al Shabaal overthrow the (TFG), there will be nothing left on which peace can built in Somalia.
And it is an illusion to think that leaving Somalia alone without external help will sort out its own problems. From 1991 when Said Barre was overthrow to the formation of the (TFG) in 2004, Somalis were left to themselves and all they did was to slaughter one another! So we should not abandon them.
But the big question is: How do we take peace to our Somali brothers and sisters without war, given that Al Shabaab is a very dangerous group? The AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) Force Commander Major General Nathan Mugisha who is on the ground in Somalia has words of great wisdom which should serve as the foundation to our answer to this complicated question. In the AMISOM Bulletin, Issue 1, February 2010, he says: “It is a gradual process; peace cannot be achieved in a day as Rome was not built in a day. We have to identify the good Somalis – the positive –thinking Somalis – and encourage them to join the TFG in fighting for peace, while trying to convince those still out there in the bush to come to the negotiating table. We shall endeavour to convince them to lay down their arms and negotiate.” This in my opinion is the right military and political strategy we should follow.
We should avoid by all means following the Iraq and Afghanistan path. Should we do so, then we are in for a prolonged war with no success. Thousands of international troops have been poured into these two countries to fight the “insurgents” but with all their superior power and weaponry of advanced technology they have not managed to wipe them out!
It should be remembered also that in 1993 the Americans went into Somalia with sophisticated weapons and war planes in a bid to captured war Lord General Mohamed Farrah Aidid. But they neither captured him nor restored peace there! And yet all the time they were looking for Aidid he was right there in Mogadishu! And in 2006-2007, Ethiopian troops in their thousands poured into Somalia. With T- 55 tanks and jet fighters fought the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) forces who wanted to overthrow the (TFG). They entered the country on July 20th 2006 and by around February 2007 they had chased the (ICU) forces out of Somalia. And so they claimed victory! But unfortunately no peace came to Somalia. War will not bring peace to Somalia.
So far AMISOM has the confidence of the local people. And precisely it is in this in which lies the key to winning the Somalia war and restores peace to our brothers and sisters there. Our chief weapon in Somalia should not be the gun but …To win the confidence of the local people!
Al Shabaab has a force of about 10,000 fighters. The AMISOM troops together with the Government forces are about 8,000 at the moment. So we should send in better equipped troops to raise the number to about 25,000 fighters. But we should send them in there not to engage in direct fighting with Al Shabaab, but to keep the little peace which is still there concretized in the peace loving Somalis who are still in the country. We should not think that whoever is still in Somalia belongs to Al Shabaab.
The African Union leaders as they meet in Kampala must not delay any more in sending in these 25,000 troops. For the situation is getting worse by the day. The Uganda news paper New Vision, Friday 23, 2010 has reported that two Ugandan soldiers have been killed in Somalia while defending the Presidential Palace.
When Al Shabaab will see such a big number of well equipped troops arrive in Mogadishu, they will be frightened. And they will leave Mogadishu and its surroundings without a fight. For they will not want to lose their fighters. They will then resort to guerrilla warfare. At least in this way we shall have regained the whole of Mogadishu without or with very little bloodshed.
Once Mogadishu is peaceful enough then we have a place from where to work for the restoration of peace in the whole country. As I have said we should not engage in directing fighting with Al Shabaab unless it’s for self defence. For fighting they directly will result into the death of many innocent Somalis a thing we must avoid by all means. For the killing innocent Somalis by our troops will make them lose trust and confidence in us, and then we shall never win this war. They stop making any difference between our troops and Al Shabaab!
We should win the confidence of the local people not by killing them but by truly showing them that we are in there not for our interest but for their own interest and good. Once they get convinced of this, they them selves will be a protection to our soldiers. For they will show them where Al Shabaab fighters are hiding! And then our soldiers will be able to pick them without killing innocent people. And also the local people will begin discouraging their children from joining Al Shabaab. In this way we shall truly be winning the war without shedding much blood and at the same time restoring peace.
I appeal to all East Africans to join me in prayer so that the leaders of this Continent may listen to my appeal and advice. And also request you to constantly remember our Somali brothers and sisters in your prayers.
* Dominic Nkoyoyo is a monk at Monastery Val Notre-Dame, Canada
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this section do not represent the opinions of CISA.
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